Noles Magic Number Is 8 Gut Reaction Season Prediction
Posted by William Kristoph
I’m late to the “Preseason OMG SUPER DUPER Prediction” hype. Why? Frankly, as a long time sports fan I’ve grown a dislike for hype in general. In fact, I probably don’t have a problem with recruiting news but with the hype that surrounds recruiting. It’s nice to be educated about opponents (Tomahawk Nation does this the best imho), it’s nice to understand the outlook for the Noles too, but at the end of the day I just want to watch some football. I think my attitude towards the hype is what keeps me grounded when it comes to my opinions of FSU sports.
Preface aside, I humbly put forth my 2010 Gut Reaction Season Prediction (MattD at TN will berate me for the lack of statistics, so for him I will assign confidence points between 0-100 based on my gut feeling of the Noles’ chance to win). Instead of the typical analysis for each game, which I’m sure most of you have read, I’m going to include some fan perspective for each contest:
September 4 – Samford – 99% - The debut of Jimbo Fisher as Head Coach and having full control of Florida State football should go smoothly. Whether it’s a blowout or not, I’m not sure. If it’s a hot day for a noon kickoff I’ll be rooting for a 35 point halftime lead by the Noles so that I can go home. Yep, I admit it, I’m leaving early and headed to the A/C (I have family that can’t be forced to stay in 100 degree temps) if the Noles are well ahead. Remember to hydrate plenty Seminole fans, and if there’s a monsoon it’s possible that the 1% chance I gave Samford to win is plausible.
September 11 – @ Oklahoma – 30% - I obviously don’t expect an FSU victory in Norman, Oklahoma. Forgetting about OU for a minute and focusing only on FSU, I don’t feel like the Noles can out talent anybody on the schedule other than Samford. FSU might be more talented than some teams, yes, but talent alone is not going to win games for FSU like it did in the 90s. Good play calling and strategy combined with excellent execution by the players will get victories in 2010. If Jimbo Fisher and more importantly Mark Stoops have something up their sleeves for the Sooners, FSU will make this game the most entertaining on the schedule and possibly walk away with a victory. It can be a signature moment for Jimbo Fisher. If the Noles DO walk away with a win, it will be important for FSU fans to remember that the magic number for 2010 remains 8 regular season wins.
September 18 – BYU – 85% - BYU never scares me as a fan. That’s naive sometimes. On paper they’re not as talented as the 2009 edition that FSU crushed in Provo. I expect a solid win from the Seminoles. At least a 3:30pm kickoff is more tolerable than a noon kickoff.
September 25 – Wake Forest – 90% - Mr. Peanut The Demon Deacon and crew aren’t supposed to be very good this year, however as an FSU fan I do have a couple of comments. First, Wake still has the cutest cheerleader I’ve ever seen (probably 10 years ago now) of any team I’ve watched FSU play. Odd stat, no? Second, Mr. Peanut The Demon Deacon is my father’s favorite mascot for some reason. Game wise I expect a Seminole victory again, but I ALSO expect a couple of injuries (hopefully not major) the defense thanks to Wake Forest’s cheating blocking scheme.
October 2 – @ Virginia – 85% - Fans in ties. Blah. I having nothing else to say about Virginia other than their new uniforms are ugly, especially that orange jersey / blue pants combo. Noles win this one too.
October 9 – @ Miami – 50% - Canes. Noles. The teams sort of hate each other. The games are always exciting. FSU tends to come out on the short end of the stick more often than not. As a reformed Canes fan, I’m never surprised when Miami wins (Canes expect to win, Noles hope to win that game). The good news for FSU is that the Orange Bowl is gone and whatever Joe Robbie Stadium is called now isn’t not nearly as intimidating of a place to play. This one is a toss up for me.
October 16 – Boston College – 65% – History shows that the road team generally wins this game. History also tells me that some sort of stupid uniform gimmick will be used since Boston College shares similar colors with the Noles. I never look forward to this game. Never. On the bright side, I don’t sit near the visitor’s section any more. I feel like FSU should win this game, but has a very good chance to be upset by a B.C. team that’s probably better every year than I give them credit for.
October 28 – @ N.C. State – 65% - The dreaded Thursday night game for fans. Thankfully, it’s not at Doak Campbell Stadium. FSU probably pulls this one out too.
November 6 – North Carolina – 75% – Agentgate will take its toll on UNC. The Tar Heels will also be banged up from playing in the ACC Coastal and facing LSU and Rutgers early in the season. At home and overall, the Noles pretty much own UNC historically. I see no reason for that to change in 2010, with a defensive unit that should have gelled by now and be much better than the 2009 edition.
November 13 – Clemson – 70% - The only school with a cheer that sounds like they forgot how to spell C-L-E-M-S-O……… N? Kyle Parker will make it tough on the Seminoles’ defense. Christian Ponder will have to go toe-to-toe in passing stats with Parker for FSU to win. I have a strong feeling that he will, and FSU prevails.
November 20 – @ Maryland – 85% – Ralphie boy is on his way out. The Terrapin looks like a cockroach. The best thing to come out of the University of Maryland is Bonnie Bernstein. B-squared is the only reason I’m giving the Terps a 15% chance to win this one. Noles roll.
November 27 – Florida – 45% – As a fan, I want nothing more than to have bragging rights over all of those annoying, self-righteous, smug Gator fans. Seriously, I know UF has won a bunch through the 00′s, but I’m sick of it. Too bad I won’t get the opportunity to feel better yet. UF is still better than FSU, even with Tim Tebow in Denver now. FSU will keep it close, but lose this one.
The Magic Number is 8
Based on my percentage points that puts FSU at 8.44 Wins. Since it’s absolutely stupid to talk about .44 of a win, I’ll round down to 8 wins, the Noles Magic Number for the season. Against a very tough schedule, FSU will win 8 games provided there isn’t some catastrophic injury to Christian Ponder or half the defense doesn’t get arrested. More than 8 wins this season means two things to me. The defense plays much better than anybody predicts and the special teams are fantastic. Dustin Hopkins will play a key role, and his accuracy from inside of 40 yards is a MUST this season.
Eight wins is a vast improvement for FSU over previous seasons. When the insanity of scheduling non-conference major schools ends in the near future, the win total will easily hit 10 every season. Jimbo Fisher has this team moving in the right direction I believe, but Seminoles will have to be patient.
Picking Actual Wins and Losses
I predict 8 wins and 4 losses. Who will FSU lose to? Based on my weighting, 3 choices are obvious, Oklahoma, Florida and Miami. Two schools are listed at 65%, Boston College and N.C. State, so according to my gut FSU will lose one of those two games. I’ll choose Boston College who I also predict, based on an easy schedule, will win the ACC Atlantic thanks to a tiebreaker with the win over FSU (6-2 ACC) and play for the ACC Title against Georgia Tech. Eight wins puts FSU in a solid bowl game with a bright outlook for 2011 and beyond. It’s a good time to be a Seminole Football fan!
What do you think?
Am I way off? Tell if me I’m nuts, dead on or way too pessimistic by leaving me a comment.
NoleCC
I am on the same page as you, and I like the way you articulated your analysis.
Add this:
Oct. 9th Miami – We need KICKING, KICKING, KICKING if we have learned from the past!
Nov. 27th Florida – Kicking and Special Teams for those extra points! We will need every one of them!
Kicking is always a key, Hopkins has to make the routine kicks automatic since he certainly has the ability to make the long ones.
I like it, CC. You’re a little more bullish on a few of these predictions than am I, but our win totals come to the same round number. 8 with a shot at an Atlantic Division title would be excellent.
Maybe I’m more bullish on the D than you? I guess in my thought process even a tiny bit better than last year and Miami, GT and BC are wins. Suddenly 2009 FSU is at 9 regular season wins.
Hopefully that’s enough in 2010.
Well done sir. Very reasonable. I think the only game I differ significantly on was UNC.
MattD still loves you, Im sure. He is a sweet boy according to his mama.
Probably the difference in UNC is the timing of the picks. I have the benefit of watching agentgate for the Tar Heels with a prediction this late into fall camp.
All Im saying is that Im actually excited for the UF game this year for the first time in about 5 years
Me too AB, me too!
A ten win season would be an above average performance. A nine win season would be an average performance. An eight win season would be a below average performance. Logic; Seven home games with road games at Maryland, UVA, and NCState. Potentially, can loose one home game and win a difficult game on the road, either OU or Miami. So, nine wins is required to be considered a successful season.
8 wins will be a good first season for Jimbo. The defense is still just one year away from being one of the worst in the country, the team is just getting proper strength and conditioning, and the schedule is one of the toughest in the country. Playing at home has not been a guarantee of a win in years, so that isn’t so logical. Our talent level is not what it used to be, though it is getting back to where it should be. 9 or more wins would be great.
We have UF, BC, NC, and Clemson at home, so that is better than playing them on the road, but losing 2 of those games would not make the season unsuccessful. 5-2 at home and 3-2 on the road, would be a good start for our rebuilding. There is no way that the last few FSU teams would have had that record. My expectations for a good season means beating the teams we are supposed to beat. When we pull an upset over OK or UF, that means the season was great. If you have to beat the odds to have a good season, then your expectations are unrealistic.
If they lose ugly and don’t look like any progress has been made, then I’ll be ticked off too. If they are close against strong teams and simply get beat, I don’t like losing, but I can understand. My expectations are for the coaching staff to then go out and recruit the players to address the issues and to make adjustments in schemes so that we get better. For this year, 8-4 would be a good season. Especially with the defensive transition.
Excellent level headed account Chauncy, and I totally agree that an upset of OU or UF… especially UF could make the season GREAT.
I think where I come up with 8 instead of 9 is that I don’t put as much into the home field advantage at Doak. Teams are no longer scared to play in Tallahassee like they were in the 90′s and pair that up with the down-economy crowds and it’s awfully quiet in there lately too.