Posted by NoleCC

I have a couple of quick thoughts about the opening games last night before I get to my thoughts about Monday night at Doak Campbell Stadium:

• N.C. State looked slow and apathetic against South Carolina.
• Why is it so hard to find a consistent kicker? They do one thing at practice everyday. Why aren’t most better at their job?
• The ESPN crew last night was so full of SEC homerisms that I vomited in my mouth a little bit.
• I’m very glad that I switched over to Big Brother 11 for an hour, because I didn’t miss anything in that N.C. State / South Carolina game while I left it.
• Boise State is always fun to watch.
• I love the blue turf, but I hate the new silver numbers on the uniforms.
• Nice job by the Boise State fans to color off each section in T-shirts, it was a good look and a good twist on the normal white / black / whatever color out.
• Oregon is rapidly rising up my list of teams I intensely dislike. They act like idiots and have players that think it’s bright to take on a gaggle of fans on the road. Brilliant.
• Virginia Tech is going to lose Saturday night to ‘Bama. It is what it is, but until the Hokies prove me wrong once, I have to believe ‘Bama is the winner.

Now that all of that is off of my chest, it’s time to talk FSU vs. Miami. You can go to lots of places and read about the stats, the star ratings and what is “supposed to happen” on Monday night. You can read practice reports, you can watch practice video and find out who did what in a scrimmage. But games aren’t played on paper, and titles aren’t won on the practice field. And none of those factor in MY GUT FEELINGS! You can’t argue with my gut, it’s mean and nasty and guides my predictions. It is the culmination of my subconscious, the result of reading all of those stats and practice reports for you. And to top it all off, it’s just as accurate as everyone from ESPN (although that’s not saying much).

Throw all of that garbage out the window for Monday night. It’s a rivalry game and crazy things happen in rivalry games.

Let’s look at some facts:

• Miami and FSU play close games.
• Both teams are very talented, but inexperienced at a lot of positions.
• The FSU Defense is not deep.
• The Miami Defense is banged up.
• The atmosphere at the stadium will be different. The student section was revamped and is now general admission. Does that mean students will be there early? Will less than a full stadium give the Noles much of an advantage?
• The weather report is iffy for Monday, rain could be a factor.
• When I can’t figure out how to break a stalemate I look at Special Teams, and Miami has the edge unless Dustin Hopkins or James Esco has a great night.

What do the Noles need to do to win against the Canes?

Monday night, FSU needs to come out and run the ball. When they are done with that, they need to run the ball some more. Jermaine Thomas, Ty Jones, your grandmother, whomever. They need to run, run, run and keep the FSU Defense off of the field.  More importantly, the Noles need to score touchdowns and not be content with field goal attempts.  It’s imperative that FSU plays consistent clock-controlling football. I’d love nothing more than to see a 7+ minute drive from FSU during the ball game. It will help to wear out Miami’s defense, and keep the FSU defensive starters fresh. Once Miami starts stacking the box with 8 guys, THEN the Noles can go to the air with Christian Ponder and the WRs, who should be open in man on man coverage.

The FSU defense needs to hang tight, and I hope the starters are ready for lots of playing time. On the bright side, Mickey Andrews stated that this was his fastest defense EVER. That’s good news for FSU fans, but lets hope they can tackle too. Speed kills when it’s used properly, but when it’s not you end up with grossly out of position players and big plays for the opposing offense. I have a feeling in the pit of my stomach that the Miami offense is going to take a quarter and a half to get going, but once it does, watch out. The Canes are also going to have a trick play or two up their sleeve for FSU. If those go right, that’s 7-10 “stolen” points for the Canes. The difference maker in the game.

Again, I point to the rivalry game status. It’s going to be close. FSU probably isn’t quite as good as we’d like to think, and the Canes aren’t as bad as we’d hoped. Special Teams make all the difference in a game like this. The Canes are set with one of the best kickers in the ACC, if not the nation, Matt Bosher. Dustin Hopkins, a true freshman, is the likely starter for FSU. He replaces, all-everything, Graham Gano. If Hopkins makes consistent deep kickoffs, makes his extra points and makes all field goals from 45 yards and in, the Noles are sitting pretty after the game. If not, there will be a lot of broken hearts on Tuesday morning for Seminole fans.

Historically, the Noles seem to play Miami “not to lose.” Monday night, they need to PLAY TO WIN THE GAME. If they go down with their guns blazing, so be it.

What’s the outcome?

I’m pinning my prediction on two facts. I think the FSU Offensive Line is the best in the ACC, and that they will be able to run block even if Miami stacks the box. FSU has talented running backs that will get the job done on Monday night. That will open up the passing lanes for Christian Ponder and wide receivers like Jarmon Fortson and Bert Reed. I think the FSU Special Teams will play fine, and FSU kicker Dustin Hopkins will keep Miami pinned back on kickoffs. The Noles roll if they run the ball well.

Final Score: Florida State Seminoles 31, Miami Hurricanes 21.

I’ll have a full recap on Tuesday, along with some new photos (from a new perspective at my new seats on the home side of the field) for the ScalpEm.com Photo Album (hopefully, it depends on the lighting and the weather). Facebook Fans of ScalpEm users will get an exclusive 5 photos before the full album is released here, so if you haven’t joined up as a fan, do it! Also, I’ll “Tweet” some thoughts during the game from my seat inside Doak Campbell Stadium, so follow me on Twitter.

Go ‘Noles!!!