Wednesday FSU Quick Thoughts
Posted by NoleCC
Quick thoughts all various topics:
- The baseball team is still rough, even with a rally to beat FGCU last night.
- The Petting Zoo in Section 10 Â is amusing, mostly.
- The softball team is up to #19, they beat FAMU in a tough one, but they keep on winning those games. A win is a win is a win.
- The men’s and women’s basketball teams both deserve congratulations, but obviously need to take another step to get to thier next respective levels.
- The Chopping Block is not nearly as good when Andrew Carter isn’t the poster.
- FSU Football will go 8-4 in 2009. (I reserve the right to adjust that.)
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Nancy on 
Nole4ever on 
Abe Fr0man on 
I totally agree on 8-4
Though reports out of Wake and SoFla are not encouraging.
Yeah, so I’ve read… I’m going to hold out hope that it improves some. Plus, I have a lot of questions about ACC Teams too, so for now 8-4 sounds about right.
Do you favor using proportional win shares to determine record?
If by proportional win shares you mean I look at the schedule and think to myself “W” or “L” while keeping track of “W” on my fingers, then yes I use proportional win shares to determine record. Otherwise I have no idea WTF you are talking about. LOL.
Basically…
instead of saying win or loss, assign an estimate win %, then total those.
For instance
Sept. 7, 2009 Miami-FL .65
Sept. 12, 2009 Jacksonville St. .99
Sept. 19, 2009 at BYU .50
Sept. 26, 2009 South Florida .7
Oct. 3, 2009 at Boston College .7
Oct. 10, 2009 Georgia Tech .55
Oct. 22, 2009 at North Carolina .5
Oct. 31, 2009 NC State .75
Nov. 7, 2009 at Clemson .5
Nov. 14, 2009 at Wake Forest .65
Nov. 21, 2009 Maryland .8
Nov. 28, 2009 at Florida .2
Adds up to 7.49, I’ll make that 7.5 for an easy figure.
So my guess (subject to change) would be 7-5 or 8-4
TN.
I’d change BYU to a little higher number. They’re good over there in Utah, but theyre not at the level of Clemson or UNC yet, IMO
Fair enough.
I’m just always wary of teams going cross-country, ala Tennessee losing to a horrible UCLA team last year (though Tennessee wasn’t great), or Cal losing at Maryland.
This may sound stupid but I don’t see how going through that random assigning of percentages is any different that going through the list and picking W or L straight up.
@8
Let’s say we played a schedule in which we were 7pt dogs to every team
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
Okay, so 0-12
But if you said okay, we have about a 33% chance of winning those…
.33
.33
.33
.33
.33
.33
.33
.33
.33
.33
.33
.33
That’s a projected 4 wins.
It’s particularly useful when you will likely play a lot of close wins. It also helps fans see that certain games are definitely not automatic.
@9 I see what your saying, but I’m black & white about my picks. I don’t deal with spreads. Under that example, I would pick FSU to be 0-12. Assigning a % chance to win seems like pulling a number out of my ass, which isn’t something I generally do. How do you guys come up with that 33% chance?
In addition, if we’re going to go with stats, every game, in reality is 50/50. You win or you don’t.
Yes, the outcome is, but the probabilities are not, and since we’re talking about projections…
Even without spreads, you can probably figure a good %. It seems innacurate to assign W/L to a game that is basically a coin flip.
How about this:
figure wins, losses, and TOSS’s. For instance, you might think we have 7 wins, 3 losses, and 2 tossups. Split the tossups, for 8-4.
@12 – This is why I generally don’t love statistics. Sure, some are more useful than others, and some are downright nitpicky, but they don’t always tell the story as stat heads would like many people to think. Just look at a baseball box score. A guy can have 3 weak hits in a game, and another guy can laser the ball at the SS 3 times for 3 outs. Statistically the 1st guy is better than the 2nd, but if you’re watching, the 2nd guy might be the prospect you want.
Anyway that’s a bit off topic, my point is that by definition, there are two outcomes to a football game. A Win or a Loss, which makes it’s 50/50, statistically. In reality, I see what your system is trying to do, but there are two things I don’t like about it. The first is that I still don’t see where the numbers actually come from, other than my own butt, and the second is Chili’s (Block-C.com) point on the topic, when you look at a list like that it makes it sound like “well, you know we only had a 20% chance to beat Florida, losing to them isn’t so bad.” It devalues or overvalues individual games.