Belief In FSU Football?
Posted by NoleCC
Corey Clark at the Tallahassee Democrat blogged about belief in the FSU Football team? Are you starting to believe? Clark’s big argument lies in the fact that FSU isn’t defined as great, but as good. Good teams win he says, and FSU has only 1 loss this season.
Am I a believer? Hell no, that’s out for 2008, and it was from the beginning.
How many times has FSU done this in the past 6-7 years? They start off great, only to get to a point in the season where they blow up. Looking at the schedule, GT, Clemson, BC, Maryland and Florida… it’s as easy to go 4-1 as it is 1-4. So am I believer in FSU football? Not yet, I need more proof that the character of this team can hold up.
Where is that final proof? In losing.
Looking back at the Wake Forest game, it’s obvious that FSU could have won that game had they been better prepared. They rebounded the next week, but at an early stage in the season it’s easy to do that. Plus, the Wake Forest game was the first game of 2008 against a non high school non FCS Division team. There can be lots of angles to take on a loss early in the year. But what happen now if FSU loses a tough game down the stretch? What is the psyche of the team? If the Noles lose to GT next weekend, are they going to get up for the talented-but-turmoiled Clemson Tigers? Or what if the Noles go to Maryland, lose (potentially giving up an ACC Title birth) and then lose to Florida? How would this team handle two losses to end the season?
I root hard for them each week, and I do enjoy watching them play (which is a huge upgrade from the past couple of years). Belief has a “blind faith” kind of connotation with me, and I refuse to think that FSU will end the year with only 1 loss, or that the Noles will win every close game they play. So no, I’m not a believer in this team, but I’m a fan of it, and that will never change.
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Well written, and I have to say I *mostly* agree with your position. I too would definitely always be a fan, but I think the difference between us now is that I am once again becoming (but not there fully) a believer again.
I think that this years team has shown the poise, grit, determination and stamina that we’ve seen in the glory years but obviously they have a long way to go yet. It continues to concern me that we always seem to be playing catch-up because the quality doesn’t show until after half-time. If we could play one entire game the way we’ve played the second half of the past couple, then I might be a believer completely.
Great timing on this. You might want to add that FSU faces the 8th toughest remaining schedule from here on out, while having ran the gauntlet of the… well… 54th ranked so far.
I have blind faith in Jimbo, as he has taken this team out of it’s tailspin, changing the culture, jacking recruiting, and bringing us into the 21st century.
Blind faith in this team’s ability to win out? Heck no. See also: schedule strength note above.
We are better than BC, Clemson, and Maryland. GT is arguable. UF is not.
I’ve been sitting on these percentages for a while, but I’ll lay them out now. These are the probabilities of different theoretical projected finishes, based on rough estimates of vegas moneylines.
7-1 ACC 16.6%
6-2 ACC 39.5%
5-3 ACC 32.4%
4-4 ACC 10.5%
3-5 ACC 1.1%
11-1 4.2%
10-2 22.3%
9-3 37.7%
8-4 26.9%
7-5 8.2%
6-6 0.8%
What do you think of those? I think they are soberingly realistic. Yes, they add up to 100%, haha.
Here are some notes about this:
There is an 87 % chance we finish 10-2, 9-3, or 8-4.
You stated “Looking at the schedule, GT, Clemson, BC, Maryland and Florida… it’s as easy to go 4-1 as it is 1-4.”
My numbers strongly disagree, as it seems we are close to 3 times more likely to go 4-1 as 1-4. (22.3% versus 8.2%).
I have confidence that we will continue to work on offensive stuff, and that our defense will continue to play at a National Championship level (and they should as they are talented and very veteran).
Thoughts?
Strong points TN, STRONG. You’ve proven my off the cuff statement wrong, or at least less viable with stats. Although like anything in this world I could argue 4-1 and 1-4 are 50/50 chance, because either they will happy or they won’t, individually. But I like those stats… a lot. I think it’s a pretty logical way of thinking about the rest of the season.
Honestly, I think the Noles have a great shot at being a one loss team when the Gates roll into RZ Field…
That would possibly mean a BCS berth and maybe even a MNC shot if all the cards fall right…
AND…
IF the NCAA doesn’t pull the plug on you guys…
GH… I know many in the Gator Nation are hoping for the NCAA to pull the plug, and I think it’s possible, but not likely… my only reasoning is that ultimately the NCAA is about money… and pulling the plug on FSU means a loss of money for the conference and ultimately the NCAA. So I don’t think FSU will be denied bowl games or anything, but only time will tell.
Whoa, NCC, I’m not necessarily “hoping” for that…
Nor do I EVER come here commenting to bear ill will…
But you know that…
(doffs his Gator cap)
As a CFB fan in general, I realize how important it is to UF’s SOS that the Noles be somewhere in the top 25 each Thanksgiving weekend and the bucket of change that comes along with the game in TV revenue…
Probation penalties such as schollie losses as well as post season and media appearance bans will be no help to the Noles which means it’s detrimental to UF in lost revenue, media exposure and MNC positioning…
Just like the middling efforts of lackluster Nole squads have cost UF those things over the past few years…
BUT…
(puts Gator hat back on)
I will admit that no matter what comes out of it there is a bit of smug satisfaction to see the School Out West not dodging all the bullets this time…
;-]
GH,
I wasn’t pointing the finger at you… you generally have well thought out ideas over here! I just meant I’ve read a lot of OTHER Gator opinions that are just ridiculously stupid and out of line.
As a fan we have to remain true. Is this team destined to do great things, maybe not but lets remember, FSU teams of the past havent handled adversity well as this year team has. From the Test Scandal( which wasnt a big deal) to injuries and youth I think we are right where we need to be to gain some sort of respectability and gain some spotlight. I enjoy seeing the wins but the loses will do a team this young well, keeps them humble but also makes them hungry. I can very well see us going into the Florida Game 9-2 and knocking on the door for a acc championship and a BCS bowl birth. (Oh, I forgot to mention this side bar but in 1999, the year of the NC, that FSU team went into halftime trailing twice that season and 3 games only led by a touchdown or less before opening a lead after coming back onto the field)